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Below are my ranks for all 120 Division 1-A teams based on all games played
through Saturday, November 15, 2008. The
ranks were produced using a penalized maximum likelihood model I have developed
which is described in a paper I recently wrote.
The model uses ONLY wins and losses as its input and ignores margin of
victory, location of the game, conference affiliation, date of the game,
etc. Moreover, the model does not use
any prior information such as pre-season rankings. Despite its simplicity, the
rankings produced have agreed more strongly on average with the AP and Coaches
polls than all 10 computer models that have been used in the BCS, as discussed
in my paper.
Click here to download my paper,
updated July of 2003. The paper was
published in the November 2003 issue of The American Statistician.
Click here to view the SAS code or R code which ranks
teams using my model.
Special thanks to Derek, Vijay, and Earl for all the help they have given me
with this project and to Kenneth Massey for including my rankings on his comparison page.
|
Rank |
Team |
Rating |
Wins |
Losses |
|
1 |
Texas
Tech |
1.5876 |
10 |
0 |
|
2 |
Texas |
1.4980 |
10 |
1 |
|
3 |
Alabama |
1.4916 |
11 |
0 |
|
4 |
Utah |
1.4171 |
11 |
0 |
|
5 |
Florida |
1.2559 |
9 |
1 |
|
6 |
Oklahoma |
1.2435 |
9 |
1 |
|
7 |
Boise St. |
1.1932 |
10 |
0 |
|
8 |
USC |
1.1400 |
9 |
1 |
|
9 |
Georgia |
1.0945 |
9 |
2 |
|
10 |
Penn St. |
1.0490 |
10 |
1 |
|
11 |
Ball St. |
0.9994 |
10 |
0 |
|
12 |
Ohio St. |
0.9983 |
9 |
2 |
|
13 |
Oklahoma
St. |
0.9618 |
9 |
2 |
|
14 |
Missouri |
0.9245 |
9 |
2 |
|
15 |
Brigham
Young |
0.8907 |
10 |
1 |
|
16 |
TCU |
0.8726 |
9 |
2 |
|
17 |
Michigan
St. |
0.8546 |
9 |
2 |
|
18 |
Cincinnati |
0.7239 |
8 |
2 |
|
19 |
North
Carolina |
0.6486 |
7 |
3 |
|
20 |
Oregon
St. |
0.6323 |
7 |
3 |
|
21 |
Pittsburgh |
0.6193 |
7 |
2 |
|
22 |
Miami,
Fla. |
0.5953 |
7 |
3 |
|
23 |
LSU |
0.5772 |
7 |
3 |
|
24 |
Nebraska |
0.5415 |
7 |
4 |
|
25 |
Central
Michigan |
0.5376 |
8 |
2 |
|
26 |
Western
Michigan |
0.5303 |
9 |
2 |
|
27 |
Oregon |
0.5266 |
8 |
3 |
|
28 |
Florida
St. |
0.4793 |
7 |
3 |
|
29 |
Air Force |
0.4610 |
8 |
3 |
|
30 |
Boston
College |
0.4470 |
7 |
3 |
|
31 |
Georgia
Tech |
0.4415 |
7 |
3 |
|
32 |
South
Carolina |
0.4388 |
7 |
4 |
|
33 |
Northwestern |
0.4303 |
8 |
3 |
|
34 |
Connecticut |
0.4223 |
7 |
3 |
|
35 |
Maryland |
0.4210 |
7 |
3 |
|
36 |
California |
0.4094 |
6 |
4 |
|
37 |
Virginia
Tech |
0.3814 |
6 |
4 |
|
38 |
Wake
Forest |
0.3690 |
6 |
4 |
|
39 |
Mississippi |
0.3636 |
6 |
4 |
|
40 |
Vanderbilt |
0.3592 |
6 |
4 |
|
41 |
Iowa |
0.3530 |
7 |
4 |
|
42 |
Tulsa |
0.3049 |
8 |
2 |
|
43 |
Rice |
0.2733 |
7 |
3 |
|
44 |
West
Virginia |
0.2695 |
6 |
3 |
|
45 |
Notre
Dame |
0.2388 |
6 |
4 |
|
46 |
Virginia |
0.2360 |
5 |
5 |
|
47 |
Wisconsin |
0.2262 |
6 |
5 |
|
48 |
Navy |
0.2253 |
6 |
4 |
|
49 |
Kansas |
0.2225 |
6 |
5 |
|
50 |
Minnesota |
0.1857 |
7 |
4 |
|
51 |
Kentucky |
0.1713 |
6 |
5 |
|
52 |
Buffalo |
0.1590 |
6 |
4 |
|
53 |
Rutgers |
0.1002 |
5 |
5 |
|
54 |
South
Florida |
0.0944 |