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David Mease's Football Rankings

Below are my ranks for all 120 Division 1-A teams based on all games played for the 2009-2010 season including the bowl games. The ranks were produced using a penalized maximum likelihood model I have developed which is described in a paper I recently wrote. The model uses ONLY wins and losses as its input and ignores margin of victory, location of the game, conference affiliation, date of the game, etc. Moreover, the model does not use any prior information such as pre-season rankings. Despite its simplicity, the rankings produced have agreed more strongly on average with the AP and Coaches polls than all 10 computer models that have been used in the BCS, as discussed in my paper.

Click here to download my paper, updated July of 2003. The paper was published in the November 2003 issue of The American Statistician.

Click here to view the SAS code or R code which ranks teams using my model.

Special thanks to Derek, Vijay, and Earl for all the help they have given me with this project and to Kenneth Massey for including my rankings on his comparison page.

Rank	Team	Rating	Wins	Losses
1	Alabama	2.0435	14	0
2	Florida	1.6840	13	1
3	Boise St.	1.5953	14	0
4	Texas	1.4950	13	1
5	Cincinnati	1.4501	12	1
6	TCU	1.3603	12	1
7	Iowa	1.0954	11	2
8	Ohio St.	1.0832	11	2
9	Oregon	1.0464	10	3
10	Brigham Young	0.9975	11	2
11	Penn St.	0.9789	11	2
12	Virginia Tech	0.9468	10	3
13	Georgia Tech	0.9274	11	3
14	LSU	0.8458	9	4
15	Pittsburgh	0.8079	10	3
16	Utah	0.7608	10	3
17	Wisconsin	0.7529	10	3
18	USC	0.6817	9	4
19	Central Michigan	0.6782	12	2
20	Miami, Fla.	0.6719	9	4
21	West Virginia	0.6607	9	4
22	Nebraska	0.6489	10	4
23	Arkansas	0.6422	8	5
24	Mississippi	0.6111	9	4
25	Oklahoma St.	0.6069	9	4
26	Georgia	0.5665	8	5
27	Arizona	0.5450	8	5
28	Auburn	0.5376	8	5
29	Oregon St.	0.5310	8	5
30	Oklahoma	0.5003	8	5
31	Texas Tech	0.4946	9	4
32	Clemson	0.4889	9	5
33	Connecticut	0.4566	8	5
34	Stanford	0.4301	8	5
35	Rutgers	0.4186	9	4
36	Navy	0.4027	10	4
37	California	0.3927	8	5
38	Florida St.	0.3781	7	6
39	South Carolina	0.3649	7	6
40	Tennessee	0.3620	7	6
41	North Carolina	0.3602	8	5
42	Houston	0.3515	10	4
43	Troy	0.3414	9	4
44	South Florida	0.3396	8	5
45	East Carolina	0.3187	9	5
46	Middle Tennessee	0.3045	10	3
47	Boston College	0.3037	8	5
48	Missouri	0.2878	8	5
49	Air Force	0.2607	8	5
50	UCLA	0.2436	7	6
51	Kentucky	0.2305	7	6
52	Northwestern	0.2043	8	5
53	Fresno St.	0.1978	8	5
54	Mississippi St.	0.1890	5	7
55	Central Fla.	0.1651	8	5
56	Notre Dame	0.1347	6	6
57	Nevada	0.1194	8	5
58	Washington	0.0784	5	7
59	Wyoming	0.0630	7	6
60	SMU	0.0624	8	5
61	Idaho	0.0503	8	5
62	Minnesota	0.0448	6	7
63	Iowa St.	0.0110	7	6
64	Texas A&M	-0.0244	6	7
65	Ohio U.	-0.0250	9	5
66	Michigan St.	-0.0293	6	7
67	Temple	-0.0634	9	4
68	Marshall	-0.0722	7	6
69	Bowling Green	-0.0790	7	6
70	Kansas St.	-0.1222	6	6
71	Purdue	-0.1368	5	7
72	So. Mississippi	-0.1825	7	6
73	Wake Forest	-0.1841	5	7
74	North Carolina St.	-0.2398	5	7
75	Kansas	-0.2451	5	7
76	Syracuse	-0.2517	4	8
77	Nevada Las Vegas	-0.2587	5	7
78	Louisville	-0.2872	4	8
79	Baylor	-0.2889	4	8
80	Hawaii	-0.3032	6	7
81	Arizona St.	-0.3065	4	8
82	No. Illinois	-0.3377	7	6
83	UAB	-0.3386	5	7
84	Michigan	-0.3418	5	7
85	La. Lafayette	-0.3786	6	6
86	La. Monroe	-0.3923	6	6
87	Florida Atlantic	-0.5041	5	7
88	Colorado	-0.5231	3	9
89	Duke	-0.5289	5	7
90	Tulsa	-0.5353	5	7
91	La. Tech	-0.5446	4	8
92	Utah St.	-0.5551	4	8
93	Buffalo	-0.5607	5	7
94	San Diego St.	-0.5745	4	8
95	Indiana	-0.5821	4	8
96	Illinois	-0.5902	3	9
97	Toledo	-0.6393	5	7
98	Virginia	-0.6612	3	9
99	Texas El Paso	-0.6972	4	8
100	Kent	-0.7059	5	7
101	Colorado St.	-0.7551	3	9
102	Army	-0.7576	5	7
103	Arkansas St.	-0.8319	4	8
104	Western Michigan	-0.8394	5	7
105	Vanderbilt	-0.8756	2	10
106	Tulane	-0.8765	3	9
107	Maryland	-0.8777	2	10
108	Washington St.	-0.8961	1	11
109	Florida Intl	-0.9013	3	9
110	Rice	-0.9729	2	10
111	Akron	-1.0124	3	9
112	Memphis	-1.0174	2	10
113	San Jose St.	-1.0402	2	10
114	New Mexico St.	-1.0544	3	10
115	New Mexico	-1.2217	1	11
116	Miami, Ohio	-1.2515	1	11
117	North Texas	-1.3486	2	10
118	Ball St.	-1.4308	2	10
119	Eastern Michigan	-1.8917	0	12
120	Western Kentucky	-1.9403	0	12