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David Mease's Football Rankings


Below are my ranks for all 128 FBS teams based on all games played through Saturday, December 6, 2014. The ranks were produced using a penalized maximum likelihood model I developed which is described in a paper I wrote in 2003. The model uses ONLY wins and losses as its input and ignores margin of victory, location of the game, conference affiliation, date of the game, etc. Moreover, the model does not use any prior information such as pre-season rankings. Despite its simplicity, the rankings produced have agreed more strongly on average with the AP and Coaches polls than all 10 computer models that have been used in the BCS, as discussed in my paper.

Click here to download my paper, updated July of 2003. The paper was published in the November 2003 issue of The American Statistician.

Click here to view the SAS code or R code which ranks teams using my model.

Special thanks to Derek, Vijay, and Earl for all the help they have given me with this project and to Kenneth Massey for including my rankings on his comparison page.


Rank Team Rating Wins Losses
1 Florida St. 1.7383 13 0
2 Alabama 1.5564 12 1
3 Oregon 1.4834 12 1
4 Ohio St. 1.3304 12 1
5 TCU 1.3119 11 1
6 Baylor 1.2236 11 1
7 Mississippi St. 1.1341 10 2
8 Mississippi 1.0610 9 3
9 Arizona 1.0430 10 3
10 Michigan St. 1.0333 10 2
11 UCLA 1.0070 9 3
12 Boise St. 1.0032 11 2
13 Georgia Tech 0.9039 10 3
14 Auburn 0.8588 8 4
15 Kansas St. 0.8533 9 3
16 Clemson 0.8374 9 3
17 Missouri 0.8368 10 3
18 Wisconsin 0.8145 10 3
19 Georgia 0.8105 9 3
20 Marshall 0.8022 12 1
21 Arizona St. 0.7838 9 3
22 LSU 0.7568 8 4
23 Colorado St. 0.7411 10 2
24 Louisville 0.7152 9 3
25 Nebraska 0.7005 9 3
26 USC 0.6579 8 4
27 Utah 0.6330 8 4
28 Oklahoma 0.5908 8 4
29 Minnesota 0.5528 8 4
30 Texas A&M 0.5307 7 5
31 No. Illinois 0.5083 11 2
32 West Virginia 0.4910 7 5
33 Arkansas 0.4784 6 6
34 Cincinnati 0.4701 9 3
35 Air Force 0.4565 9 3
36 Stanford 0.4309 7 5
37 Duke 0.4263 9 3
38 Notre Dame 0.4226 7 5
39 Memphis 0.4138 9 3
40 Florida 0.3591 6 5
41 Washington 0.3471 8 5
42 Boston College 0.3352 7 5
43 Utah St. 0.3311 9 4
44 Rutgers 0.3235 7 5
45 North Carolina St. 0.3226 7 5
46 Brigham Young 0.3183 8 4
47 Maryland 0.3066 7 5
48 Texas 0.2560 6 6
49 Central Fla. 0.2538 9 3
50 Tennessee 0.2488 6 6
51 Miami, Fla. 0.2469 6 6
52 Georgia Southern 0.2092 9 3
53 Oklahoma St. 0.1962 6 6
54 South Carolina 0.1818 6 6
55 North Carolina 0.1610 6 6
56 Nevada 0.1561 7 5
57 Virginia Tech 0.1231 6 6
58 Illinois 0.1076 6 6
59 Navy 0.0945 6 5
60 Iowa 0.0941 7 5
61 La. Tech 0.0924 8 5
62 East Carolina 0.0826 8 4
63 La. Lafayette 0.0790 8 4
64 Toledo 0.0718 8 4
65 Penn St. 0.0455 6 6
66 Western Kentucky 0.0364 7 5
67 Virginia 0.0110 5 7
68 Rice -0.0123 7 5
69 Michigan -0.0367 5 7
70 California -0.0441 5 7
71 Western Michigan -0.0457 8 4
72 Texas El Paso -0.0619 7 5
73 Pittsburgh -0.0777 6 6
74 Northwestern -0.0793 5 7
75 San Diego St. -0.0828 7 5
76 Kentucky -0.0856 5 7
77 Oregon St. -0.1348 5 7
78 Middle Tennessee -0.1665 6 6
79 Houston -0.1832 7 5
80 Fresno St. -0.1926 6 7
81 Arkansas St. -0.2223 7 5
82 Temple -0.2561 6 6
83 Old Dominion -0.2645 6 6
84 UAB -0.2677 6 6
85 Bowling Green -0.2726 7 6
86 Central Michigan -0.2790 7 5
87 Texas Tech -0.2802 4 8
88 Texas St. -0.3016 7 5
89 South Alabama -0.3086 6 6
90 Washington St. -0.3537 3 9
91 Indiana -0.3646 4 8
92 Appalachian State -0.4464 7 5
93 Wyoming -0.4486 4 8
94 Ohio U. -0.4520 6 6
95 New Mexico -0.4884 4 8
96 Syracuse -0.5292 3 9
97 Kansas -0.5405 3 9
98 Purdue -0.5482 3 9
99 UT San Antonio -0.6119 4 8
100 Vanderbilt -0.6179 3 9
101 South Florida -0.6340 4 8
102 Wake Forest -0.6460 3 9
103 Colorado -0.6720 2 10
104 Hawaii -0.7281 4 9
105 La. Monroe -0.7348 4 8
106 Ball St. -0.7434 5 7
107 So. Mississippi -0.7660 3 9
108 Iowa St. -0.7723 2 10
109 Akron -0.7779 5 7
110 Tulane -0.7792 3 9
111 San Jose St. -0.7825 3 9
112 Florida Intl -0.7905 4 8
113 Florida Atlantic -0.7961 3 9
114 Buffalo -0.7992 5 6
115 North Texas -0.8561 4 8
116 Army -0.9043 4 7
117 Nevada Las Vegas -1.0616 2 11
118 Tulsa -1.0736 2 10
119 Connecticut -1.1210 2 10
120 Kent -1.1375 2 9
121 Massachusetts -1.1404 3 9
122 Troy -1.1776 3 9
123 Eastern Michigan -1.2177 2 10
124 Miami, Ohio -1.2863 2 10
125 SMU -1.2916 1 11
126 New Mexico St. -1.4325 2 10
127 Idaho -1.4856 1 10
128 Georgia St. -1.5336 1 11