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Below are my ranks for all 120 Division 1-A teams based on all games played for
the 2009-2010 season including the bowl games.
The ranks were produced using a penalized maximum likelihood model I
have developed which is described in a paper I recently wrote. The model uses ONLY wins and losses as its
input and ignores margin of victory, location of the game, conference
affiliation, date of the game, etc.
Moreover, the model does not use any prior information such as
pre-season rankings. Despite its simplicity, the rankings produced have agreed
more strongly on average with the AP and Coaches polls than all 10 computer
models that have been used in the BCS, as discussed in my paper.
Click here to download my paper,
updated July of 2003. The paper was
published in the November 2003 issue of The American Statistician.
Click here to view the SAS code or R code which ranks
teams using my model.
Special thanks to Derek, Vijay, and Earl for all the help they have given me
with this project and to Kenneth Massey for including my rankings on his comparison page.
|
Rank |
Team |
Rating |
Wins |
Losses |
|
1 |
Alabama |
2.0435 |
14 |
0 |
|
2 |
Florida |
1.6840 |
13 |
1 |
|
3 |
Boise St. |
1.5953 |
14 |
0 |
|
4 |
Texas |
1.4950 |
13 |
1 |
|
5 |
Cincinnati |
1.4501 |
12 |
1 |
|
6 |
TCU |
1.3603 |
12 |
1 |
|
7 |
Iowa |
1.0954 |
11 |
2 |
|
8 |
Ohio St. |
1.0832 |
11 |
2 |
|
9 |
Oregon |
1.0464 |
10 |
3 |
|
10 |
Brigham
Young |
0.9975 |
11 |
2 |
|
11 |
Penn St. |
0.9789 |
11 |
2 |
|
12 |
Virginia
Tech |
0.9468 |
10 |
3 |
|
13 |
Georgia
Tech |
0.9274 |
11 |
3 |
|
14 |
LSU |
0.8458 |
9 |
4 |
|
15 |
Pittsburgh |
0.8079 |
10 |
3 |
|
16 |
Utah |
0.7608 |
10 |
3 |
|
17 |
Wisconsin |
0.7529 |
10 |
3 |
|
18 |
USC |
0.6817 |
9 |
4 |
|
19 |
Central
Michigan |
0.6782 |
12 |
2 |
|
20 |
Miami,
Fla. |
0.6719 |
9 |
4 |
|
21 |
West
Virginia |
0.6607 |
9 |
4 |
|
22 |
Nebraska |
0.6489 |
10 |
4 |
|
23 |
Arkansas |
0.6422 |
8 |
5 |
|
24 |
Mississippi |
0.6111 |
9 |
4 |
|
25 |
Oklahoma
St. |
0.6069 |
9 |
4 |
|
26 |
Georgia |
0.5665 |
8 |
5 |
|
27 |
Arizona |
0.5450 |
8 |
5 |
|
28 |
Auburn |
0.5376 |
8 |
5 |
|
29 |
Oregon
St. |
0.5310 |
8 |
5 |
|
30 |
Oklahoma |
0.5003 |
8 |
5 |
|
31 |
Texas
Tech |
0.4946 |
9 |
4 |
|
32 |
Clemson |
0.4889 |
9 |
5 |
|
33 |
Connecticut |
0.4566 |
8 |
5 |
|
34 |
Stanford |
0.4301 |
8 |
5 |
|
35 |
Rutgers |
0.4186 |
9 |
4 |
|
36 |
Navy |
0.4027 |
10 |
4 |
|
37 |
California |
0.3927 |
8 |
5 |
|
38 |
Florida
St. |
0.3781 |
7 |
6 |
|
39 |
South
Carolina |
0.3649 |
7 |
6 |
|
40 |
Tennessee |
0.3620 |
7 |
6 |
|
41 |
North
Carolina |
0.3602 |
8 |
5 |
|
42 |
Houston |
0.3515 |
10 |
4 |
|
43 |
Troy |
0.3414 |
9 |
4 |
|
44 |
South
Florida |
0.3396 |
8 |
5 |
|
45 |
East
Carolina |
0.3187 |
9 |
5 |
|
46 |
Middle
Tennessee |
0.3045 |
10 |
3 |
|
47 |
Boston
College |
0.3037 |
8 |
5 |
|
48 |
Missouri |
0.2878 |
8 |
5 |
|
49 |
Air Force |
0.2607 |
8 |
5 |
|
50 |
UCLA |
0.2436 |
7 |
6 |
|
51 |
Kentucky |
0.2305 |
7 |
6 |
|
52 |
Northwestern |
0.2043 |
8 |
5 |
|
53 |
Fresno
St. |
0.1978 |
8 |
5 |
|
54 |
Mississippi
St. |
0.1890 |
5 |
7 |
|
55 |
Central
Fla. |
0.1651 |
8 |
5 |
|
56 |
Notre
Dame |
0.1347 |
6 |
6 |
|
57 |
Nevada |
0.1194 |
8 |
5 |
|
58 |
Washington |
0.0784 |
5 |
7 |
|
59 |
Wyoming |
0.0630 |
7 |
6 |
|
60 |
SMU |
0.0624 |
8 |
5 |
|
61 |
Idaho |
0.0503 |
8 |
5 |
|
62 |
Minnesota |
0.0448 |
6 |
7 |
|
63 |
Iowa St. |
0.0110 |
7 |
6 |
|
64 |
Texas
A&M |
-0.0244 |
6 |
7 |
|
65 |
Ohio U. |
-0.0250 |
9 |
5 |
|
66 |
Michigan
St. |
-0.0293 |
6 |
7 |
|
67 |
Temple |
-0.0634 |
9 |
4 |
|
68 |
Marshall |
-0.0722 |
7 |
6 |
|
69 |
Bowling
Green |
-0.0790 |
7 |
6 |
|
70 |
Kansas
St. |
-0.1222 |
6 |
6 |
|
71 |
Purdue |
-0.1368 |
5 |
7 |
|
72 |
So.
Mississippi |
-0.1825 |
7 |
6 |
|
73 |
Wake
Forest |
-0.1841 |
5 |
7 |
|
74 |
North
Carolina St. |
-0.2398 |
5 |
7 |
|
75 |
Kansas |
-0.2451 |
5 |
7 |
|
76 |
Syracuse |
-0.2517 |
4 |
8 |
|
77 |
Nevada
Las Vegas |
-0.2587 |
5 |
7 |
|
78 |
Louisville |
-0.2872 |
4 |
8 |
|
79 |
Baylor |
-0.2889 |
4 |
8 |
|
80 |
Hawaii |
-0.3032 |
6 |
7 |
|
81 |
Arizona
St. |
-0.3065 |
4 |
8 |
|
82 |
No.
Illinois |
-0.3377 |
7 |
6 |
|
83 |
UAB |
-0.3386 |
5 |
7 |
|
84 |
Michigan |
-0.3418 |
5 |
7 |
|
85 |
La.
Lafayette |
-0.3786 |
6 |
6 |
|
86 |
La.
Monroe |
-0.3923 |
6 |
6 |
|
87 |
Florida
Atlantic |
-0.5041 |
5 |
7 |
|
88 |
Colorado |
-0.5231 |
3 |
9 |
|
89 |
Duke |
-0.5289 |
5 |
7 |
|
90 |
Tulsa |
-0.5353 |
5 |
7 |
|
91 |
La. Tech |
-0.5446 |
4 |
8 |
|
92 |
Utah St. |
-0.5551 |
4 |
8 |
|
93 |
Buffalo |
-0.5607 |
5 |
7 |
|
94 |
San Diego
St. |
-0.5745 |
4 |
8 |
|
95 |
Indiana |
-0.5821 |
4 |
8 |
|
96 |
Illinois |
-0.5902 |
3 |
9 |
|
97 |
Toledo |
-0.6393 |
5 |
7 |
|
98 |
Virginia |
-0.6612 |
3 |
9 |
|
99 |
Texas El
Paso |
-0.6972 |
4 |
8 |
|
100 |
Kent |
-0.7059 |
5 |
7 |
|
101 |
Colorado
St. |
-0.7551 |
3 |
9 |
|
102 |
Army |
-0.7576 |
5 |
7 |
|
103 |
Arkansas
St. |
-0.8319 |
4 |
8 |
|
104 |
Western
Michigan |
-0.8394 |
5 |
7 |
|
105 |
Vanderbilt |
-0.8756 |
2 |
10 |
|
106 |
Tulane |
-0.8765 |
3 |
9 |
|
107 |
Maryland |
-0.8777 |
2 |
10 |
|
108 |
Washington
St. |
-0.8961 |
1 |
11 |
|
109 |
Florida
Intl |
-0.9013 |
3 |
9 |
|
110 |
Rice |
-0.9729 |
2 |
10 |
|
111 |
Akron |
-1.0124 |
3 |
9 |
|
112 |
Memphis |
-1.0174 |
2 |
10 |
|
113 |
San Jose
St. |
-1.0402 |
2 |
10 |
|
114 |
New
Mexico St. |
-1.0544 |
3 |
10 |
|
115 |
New
Mexico |
-1.2217 |
1 |
11 |
|
116 |
Miami,
Ohio |
-1.2515 |
1 |
11 |
|
117 |
North
Texas |
-1.3486 |
2 |
10 |
|
118 |
Ball St. |
-1.4308 |
2 |
10 |
|
119 |
Eastern
Michigan |
-1.8917 |
0 |
12 |
|
120 |
Western
Kentucky |
-1.9403 |
0 |
12 |