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David Mease's Football Rankings


Below are my ranks for all 120 Division 1-A teams based on all games played for the 2008-2009 season including the bowl games.  The ranks were produced using a penalized maximum likelihood model I have developed which is described in a paper I recently wrote.  The model uses ONLY wins and losses as its input and ignores margin of victory, location of the game, conference affiliation, date of the game, etc.  Moreover, the model does not use any prior information such as pre-season rankings. Despite its simplicity, the rankings produced have agreed more strongly on average with the AP and Coaches polls than all 10 computer models that have been used in the BCS, as discussed in my paper.

Click here to download my paper, updated July of 2003.  The paper was published in the November 2003 issue of The American Statistician.

Click here to view the SAS code or R code which ranks teams using my model.


Special thanks to Derek, Vijay, and Earl for all the help they have given me with this project and to Kenneth Massey for including my rankings on his comparison page.

 

 

Rank

Team

Rating

Wins

Losses

1

Utah

1.7228

13

0

2

Florida

1.6032

13

1

3

Texas

1.5689

12

1

4

Oklahoma

1.4946

12

2

5

USC

1.4068

12

1

6

Alabama

1.2840

12

2

7

Texas Tech

1.1768

11

2

8

TCU

1.1601

11

2

9

Boise St.

1.1322

12

1

10

Penn St.

1.0395

11

2

11

Georgia

0.9714

10

3

12

Ohio St.

0.9087

10

3

13

Oregon

0.8626

10

3

14

Cincinnati

0.8237

11

3

15

Oregon St.

0.7850

9

4

16

Virginia Tech

0.7465

10

4

17

Missouri

0.7357

10

4

18

Mississippi

0.7237

9

4

19

Oklahoma St.

0.6986

9

4

20

Florida St.

0.6895

9

4

21

Nebraska

0.6837

9

4

22

California

0.6523

9

4

23

Michigan St.

0.6442

9

4

24

Pittsburgh

0.6265

9

4

25

Brigham Young

0.6229

10

3

26

Georgia Tech

0.6133

9

4

27

Ball St.

0.5981

12

2

28

Rice

0.5566

10

3

29

Boston College

0.5234

9

5

30

West Virginia

0.5174

9

4

31

Kansas

0.4901

8

5

32

Wake Forest

0.4814

8

5

33

North Carolina

0.4529

8

5

34

Iowa

0.4497

9

4

35

Tulsa

0.4468

11

3

36

LSU

0.4166

8

5

37

Maryland

0.3741

8

5

38

Northwestern

0.3563

9

4

39

Connecticut

0.3218

8

5

40

Rutgers

0.3215

8

5

41

Vanderbilt

0.2981

7

6

42

Miami, Fla.

0.2923

7

6

43

South Carolina

0.2881

7

6

44

East Carolina

0.2729

9

5

45

Clemson

0.2663

7

6

46

South Florida

0.2660

8

5

47

Air Force

0.2613

8

5

48

Arizona

0.2535

8

5

49

Western Michigan

0.2341

9

4

50

Navy

0.1966

8

5

51

Houston

0.1427

8

5

52

Kentucky

0.1363

7

6

53

Colorado St.

0.1242

7

6

54

North Carolina St.

0.1061

6

7

55

Notre Dame

0.0810

7

6

56

Virginia

0.0662

5

7

57

Wisconsin

0.0644

7

6

58

Arkansas

0.0116

5

7

59

Buffalo

-0.0026

8

6

60

Central Michigan

-0.0247

8

5

61

Nevada

-0.0424

7

6

62

Minnesota

-0.0455

7

6

63

Colorado

-0.0555

5

7

64

La. Tech

-0.0576

8

5

65

Troy

-0.0587

8

5

66

Stanford

-0.0722

5

7

67

Fresno St.

-0.0871

7

6

68

Tennessee

-0.1168

5

7

69

So. Mississippi

-0.1173

7

6

70

Hawaii

-0.1243

7

7

71

Auburn

-0.1351

5

7

72

Illinois

-0.1720

5

7

73

Florida Atlantic

-0.1988

7

6

74

Duke

-0.2225

4

8

75

Arizona St.

-0.2302

5

7

76

Louisville

-0.2321

5

7

77

San Jose St.

-0.2954

6

6

78

Nevada Las Vegas

-0.2965

5

7

79

Kansas St.

-0.3008

5

7

80

Baylor

-0.3036

4

8

81

UCLA

-0.3361

4

8

82

Bowling Green

-0.3460

6

6

83

Purdue

-0.3528

4

8

84

Mississippi St.

-0.3530

4

8

85

Texas El Paso

-0.3590

5

7

86

New Mexico

-0.3823

4

8

87

Texas A&M

-0.3899

4

8

88

Arkansas St.

-0.3970

6

6

89

La. Lafayette

-0.3977

6

6

90

Memphis

-0.4296

6

7

91

No. Illinois

-0.4325

6

7

92

Temple

-0.4774

5

7

93

Marshall

-0.4791

4

8

94

Syracuse

-0.5294

3

9

95

Akron

-0.5303

5

7

96

Middle Tennessee

-0.5416

5

7

97

Florida Intl

-0.5571

5

7

98

Michigan

-0.5634

3

9

99

Wyoming

-0.5672

4

8

100

Utah St.

-0.6360

3

9

101

Central Fla.

-0.6772

4

8

102

UAB

-0.6866

4

8

103

Indiana

-0.7042

3

9

104

Ohio U.

-0.7541

4

8

105

La. Monroe

-0.8327

4

8

106

Kent

-0.8396

4

8

107

Toledo

-0.8951

3

9

108

New Mexico St.

-0.8955

3

9

109

Eastern Michigan

-0.9118

3

9

110

Army

-0.9791

3

9

111

Iowa St.

-1.0406

2

10

112

Washington St.

-1.0865

2

11

113

Tulane

-1.0887

2

10

114

San Diego St.

-1.1248

2

10

115

Idaho

-1.2174

2

10

116

Miami, Ohio

-1.2465

2

10

117

Washington

-1.4082

0

12

118

Western Kentucky

-1.4229

2

10

119

North Texas

-1.4255

1

11

120

SMU

-1.4287

1

11