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David Mease's Football Rankings


Below are my ranks for all 128 FBS teams based on all games played through Monday, January 12, 2015. The ranks were produced using a penalized maximum likelihood model I developed which is described in a paper I wrote in 2003. The model uses ONLY wins and losses as its input and ignores margin of victory, location of the game, conference affiliation, date of the game, etc. Moreover, the model does not use any prior information such as pre-season rankings. Despite its simplicity, the rankings produced have agreed more strongly on average with the AP and Coaches polls than all 10 computer models that have been used in the BCS, as discussed in my paper.

Click here to download my paper, updated July of 2003. The paper was published in the November 2003 issue of The American Statistician.

Click here to view the SAS code or R code which ranks teams using my model.

Special thanks to Derek, Vijay, and Earl for all the help they have given me with this project and to Kenneth Massey for including my rankings on his comparison page.


Rank Team Rating Wins Losses
1 Ohio St. 1.6288 14 1
2 Florida St. 1.5676 13 1
3 Oregon 1.5337 13 2
4 Alabama 1.4118 12 2
5 TCU 1.3497 12 1
6 Michigan St. 1.2190 11 2
7 UCLA 1.1241 10 3
8 Boise St. 1.0890 12 2
9 Baylor 1.0342 11 2
10 Georgia Tech 0.9984 11 3
11 Arizona 0.9800 10 4
12 Mississippi 0.9684 9 4
13 Mississippi St. 0.9613 10 3
14 Georgia 0.9502 10 3
15 Missouri 0.9483 11 3
16 Marshall 0.9421 13 1
17 Clemson 0.9295 10 3
18 Wisconsin 0.9059 11 3
19 Arizona St. 0.9022 10 3
20 USC 0.7843 9 4
21 Utah 0.7777 9 4
22 Auburn 0.7429 8 5
23 Kansas St. 0.7005 9 4
24 LSU 0.6227 8 5
25 Louisville 0.6155 9 4
26 Colorado St. 0.6138 10 3
27 Texas A&M 0.6039 8 5
28 Nebraska 0.5930 9 4
29 Stanford 0.5730 8 5
30 Notre Dame 0.5648 8 5
31 Arkansas 0.5217 7 6
32 Memphis 0.5194 10 3
33 Air Force 0.5134 10 3
34 Oklahoma 0.4796 8 5
35 Minnesota 0.4764 8 5
36 Florida 0.4683 7 5
37 Rutgers 0.4633 8 5
38 No. Illinois 0.4274 11 3
39 North Carolina St. 0.4031 8 5
40 Utah St. 0.3914 10 4
41 Tennessee 0.3513 7 6
42 Cincinnati 0.3444 9 4
43 Duke 0.3354 9 4
44 West Virginia 0.3326 7 6
45 South Carolina 0.3046 7 6
46 Navy 0.2574 8 5
47 Maryland 0.2557 7 6
48 Washington 0.2517 8 6
49 Oklahoma St. 0.2440 7 6
50 Georgia Southern 0.2354 9 3
51 Brigham Young 0.2139 8 5
52 Boston College 0.2131 7 6
53 Virginia Tech 0.2044 7 6
54 La. Tech 0.1944 9 5
55 La. Lafayette 0.1863 9 4
56 Penn St. 0.1765 7 6
57 Central Fla. 0.1680 9 4
58 Toledo 0.1334 9 4
59 Western Kentucky 0.1320 8 5
60 Texas 0.1261 6 7
61 Miami, Fla. 0.1048 6 7
62 Rice 0.1015 8 5
63 North Carolina 0.0819 6 7
64 Nevada 0.0226 7 6
65 Illinois 0.0204 6 7
66 Michigan 0.0185 5 7
67 East Carolina 7e-04 8 5
68 Iowa -0.0138 7 6
69 California -0.0312 5 7
70 Virginia -0.0335 5 7
71 Kentucky -0.0638 5 7
72 Northwestern -0.0729 5 7
73 Houston -0.0961 8 5
74 Western Michigan -0.1072 8 5
75 Oregon St. -0.1073 5 7
76 Texas El Paso -0.1102 7 6
77 Middle Tennessee -0.1521 6 6
78 San Diego St. -0.1781 7 6
79 Bowling Green -0.1782 8 6
80 Pittsburgh -0.2054 6 7
81 Old Dominion -0.2241 6 6
82 Temple -0.2414 6 6
83 UAB -0.2426 6 6
84 Fresno St. -0.2801 6 8
85 Arkansas St. -0.2955 7 6
86 Texas St. -0.3024 7 5
87 Washington St. -0.3201 3 9
88 Indiana -0.3203 4 8
89 Texas Tech -0.3307 4 8
90 Central Michigan -0.3625 7 6
91 South Alabama -0.3892 6 7
92 Appalachian State -0.4440 7 5
93 Wyoming -0.4483 4 8
94 Ohio U. -0.4558 6 6
95 New Mexico -0.4991 4 8
96 Syracuse -0.5585 3 9
97 Purdue -0.5687 3 9
98 UT San Antonio -0.5829 4 8
99 Vanderbilt -0.5857 3 9
100 Kansas -0.5992 3 9
101 South Florida -0.6381 4 8
102 Wake Forest -0.6484 3 9
103 Colorado -0.6622 2 10
104 La. Monroe -0.7347 4 8
105 Hawaii -0.7494 4 9
106 So. Mississippi -0.7496 3 9
107 Ball St. -0.7529 5 7
108 Akron -0.7759 5 7
109 Florida Atlantic -0.7769 3 9
110 Tulane -0.7771 3 9
111 Florida Intl -0.7810 4 8
112 Buffalo -0.8049 5 6
113 San Jose St. -0.8090 3 9
114 Iowa St. -0.8133 2 10
115 North Texas -0.8435 4 8
116 Army -0.9230 4 8
117 Tulsa -1.0780 2 10
118 Nevada Las Vegas -1.0897 2 11
119 Massachusetts -1.1309 3 9
120 Kent -1.1397 2 9
121 Connecticut -1.1426 2 10
122 Troy -1.1796 3 9
123 Eastern Michigan -1.2190 2 10
124 Miami, Ohio -1.2963 2 10
125 SMU -1.2977 1 11
126 New Mexico St. -1.4404 2 10
127 Idaho -1.5036 1 10
128 Georgia St. -1.5407 1 11