Links:
My home page

David Mease's Football Rankings


Below are my ranks for all 125 FBS teams based on all games played through Monday, January 6, 2014. The ranks were produced using a penalized maximum likelihood model I developed which is described in a paper I wrote in 2003. The model uses ONLY wins and losses as its input and ignores margin of victory, location of the game, conference affiliation, date of the game, etc. Moreover, the model does not use any prior information such as pre-season rankings. Despite its simplicity, the rankings produced have agreed more strongly on average with the AP and Coaches polls than all 10 computer models that have been used in the BCS, as discussed in my paper.

Click here to download my paper, updated July of 2003. The paper was published in the November 2003 issue of The American Statistician.

Click here to view the SAS code or R code which ranks teams using my model.

Special thanks to Derek, Vijay, and Earl for all the help they have given me with this project and to Kenneth Massey for including my rankings on his comparison page.


Rank Team Rating Wins Losses
1 Florida St. 1.8102 14 0
2 Auburn 1.4943 12 2
3 Michigan St. 1.4170 13 1
4 Missouri 1.3735 12 2
5 Central Fla. 1.2794 12 1
6 South Carolina 1.2650 11 2
7 Alabama 1.2506 11 2
8 Clemson 1.2088 11 2
9 Stanford 1.1895 11 3
10 Oklahoma 1.1465 11 2
11 Ohio St. 1.1417 12 2
12 Oregon 1.1104 11 2
13 Baylor 1.0915 11 2
14 Louisville 1.0322 12 1
15 UCLA 1.0301 10 3
16 Arizona St. 0.9669 10 4
17 LSU 0.9604 10 3
18 Texas A&M 0.8938 9 4
19 Oklahoma St. 0.8573 10 3
20 USC 0.8228 10 4
21 Notre Dame 0.8100 9 4
22 Georgia 0.7497 8 5
23 Washington 0.7269 9 4
24 Mississippi 0.6821 8 5
25 Duke 0.6732 10 4
26 Fresno St. 0.6652 11 2
27 No. Illinois 0.6323 12 2
28 Wisconsin 0.6313 9 4
29 Miami, Fla. 0.6234 9 4
30 Vanderbilt 0.6234 9 4
31 Nebraska 0.5776 9 4
32 Virginia Tech 0.5185 8 5
33 Texas 0.5159 8 5
34 Arizona 0.5047 8 5
35 Mississippi St. 0.4873 7 6
36 Iowa 0.4831 8 5
37 Minnesota 0.4063 8 5
38 Brigham Young 0.3762 8 5
39 Texas Tech 0.3683 8 5
40 Rice 0.3564 10 4
41 East Carolina 0.3560 10 3
42 Navy 0.3472 9 4
43 Michigan 0.3397 7 6
44 Penn St. 0.3379 7 5
45 Pittsburgh 0.3231 7 6
46 Georgia Tech 0.3097 7 6
47 Ball St. 0.2861 10 3
48 Bowling Green 0.2644 10 4
49 Utah St. 0.2480 9 5
50 Kansas St. 0.2432 8 5
51 Houston 0.2395 8 5
52 North Texas 0.2285 9 4
53 North Carolina 0.2255 7 6
54 Syracuse 0.2150 7 6
55 Marshall 0.2119 10 4
56 Tennessee 0.1902 5 7
57 Utah 0.1798 5 7
58 Boston College 0.1598 7 6
59 Oregon St. 0.1545 7 6
60 Washington St. 0.1536 6 7
61 La. Lafayette 0.1481 9 4
62 Arkansas St. 0.1225 8 5
63 Western Kentucky 0.1099 8 4
64 Toledo 0.0864 7 5
65 Boise St. 0.0781 8 5
66 UT San Antonio 0.0542 7 5
67 Indiana 0.0387 5 7
68 Cincinnati 0.0004 9 4
69 Maryland -0.0203 7 6
70 San Diego St. -0.0214 8 5
71 Middle Tennessee -0.0345 8 5
72 San Jose St. -0.0589 6 6
73 Buffalo -0.0783 8 5
74 Tulane -0.1002 7 6
75 La. Monroe -0.1046 6 6
76 Nevada Las Vegas -0.1128 7 6
77 Northwestern -0.1346 5 7
78 Troy -0.1540 6 6
79 Florida -0.1719 4 8
80 Colorado St. -0.2093 8 6
81 Ohio U. -0.2094 7 6
82 Florida Atlantic -0.2330 6 6
83 South Alabama -0.2410 6 6
84 Rutgers -0.3105 6 7
85 Wake Forest -0.3360 4 8
86 Colorado -0.3450 4 8
87 TCU -0.3645 4 8
88 Akron -0.3680 5 7
89 Texas St. -0.4055 6 6
90 Illinois -0.4145 4 8
91 West Virginia -0.4586 4 8
92 Central Michigan -0.4624 6 6
93 Arkansas -0.4668 3 9
94 SMU -0.4751 5 7
95 Nevada -0.4992 4 8
96 Wyoming -0.5794 5 7
97 Virginia -0.5954 2 10
98 North Carolina St. -0.6378 3 9
99 Kent -0.6465 4 8
100 Iowa St. -0.6521 3 9
101 Kansas -0.6712 3 9
102 Tulsa -0.7095 3 9
103 Kentucky -0.7941 2 10
104 Memphis -0.8329 3 9
105 New Mexico -0.8868 3 9
106 Connecticut -0.9084 3 9
107 South Florida -0.9702 2 10
108 California -0.9742 1 11
109 Purdue -1.0007 1 11
110 La. Tech -1.0295 4 8
111 Army -1.1247 3 9
112 Air Force -1.1567 2 10
113 UAB -1.1577 2 10
114 New Mexico St. -1.1690 2 10
115 Eastern Michigan -1.1830 2 10
116 Hawaii -1.2273 1 11
117 Texas El Paso -1.2474 2 10
118 Temple -1.2481 2 10
119 Idaho -1.3995 1 11
120 So. Mississippi -1.4743 1 11
121 Western Michigan -1.4997 1 11
122 Massachusetts -1.5534 1 11
123 Florida Intl -1.6062 1 11
124 Miami, Ohio -1.7992 0 12
125 Georgia St. -1.8866 0 12